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仮説「志向」は仮説「思考」ではない?
頭の中で常に仮説を考えている状態を保つ姿勢が「仮説志向」なのです。
分析時も、人と話したりミーティングをしている時でも、頭の中では常に仮説を考えていて、何かの情報が入ってきた場合は「その情報により、仮説はどう変わるか?」を考えるのです。
●仮説「思考」と仮説「志向」の違い
「仮説思考」という言葉はよく見かけると思いますが、「仮説志向」と「仮説思考」は何が違うのでしょう?
まずインターネットの百科事典「コトバンク」によると、仮説思考の意味は2つあります。
仮説思考とは、情報収集の途中や分析作業以前にある一定の「結論」(仮説)を導き出し、その仮説を検証することにより真の結論を導き出す手法である。仮説を用いることで効率的に真の結論にたどりつくことができる点がメリットとなる。
・仮説の検証は、仮説→実験→検証を繰り返すことによって、より真なる結論に近い仮説として進化していくため、当該プロセスを繰り返せば繰り返すほどよい。
(https://kotobank.jp/word/仮説思考)
確かに仮説を考え、検証する方法論としては正しいのですが、本書で主張している「仮説志向」とは趣旨が異なるように感じます(もちろん、仮説思考の方法論は別途身につける必要があるもので、決してその方法論自体を否定するわけではありません)。
仮説「志向」
・仮説を考える行為自体のこと ・仮説からすべてを考えること(アウトプット、プロセスなど)
・検証作業のあと、仮説を事後的に見直す
・連続性がある。検証作業中でも仮説が流動的に変化する
・検証と仮説の再構築に時間的な断絶がある。検証を行ったのち仮説リアルタイム性がある。流動的な再構築するまでに時間がかかる仮説の再構築によって、その場そため、検証作業が複数回にわたるので検証方法に変化が起きる
●「仮説志向」とは「仮説中心主義」である
「仮説志向」は「仮説を考えること」ではなく、「仮説中心主義」もしくは「Hypothesis-oriented」といったほうがわかりやすいかもしれません。仮説志向を貫くと、仮説の検証と再構築の境目がどんどんなくなっていきます。検証中も仮説が常に頭にあり、何かインプットがあればそのたびに仮説が再構築され、その場で検証作業に変化を及ぼすためです。結果、仮説のブラッシュアップサイクルに「連続性」や「リアルタイム性」が生まれ、サイクルが高速化します。言ってみれば、細胞が生成・分解・破壊・再生されるように、仮説の構築・検証・見直しが常に回り続けている状態です。
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